Bloomberg – Subway Is Giving Away Free Sandwiches. Will Franchisees Pick Up the Tab?

Photograph by Amy Sussman/AP Photo for Subway

Franchise units are sometimes sold to would-be entrepreneurs as businesses-in-a-box. The entrepreneur plunks down some cash and gets the equipment and branding she needs, not to mention detailed instructions on how to run the business. Those instructions can be a lifeline for the business owner—or a leash that allows the franchiser to yank an entrepreneur’s prospects in any direction.  Read more

The Columbus Dispatch – Wendy’s net income rises in second quarter

Posted Aug 5, 2015 at 12:01 AM
Updated Aug 6, 2015 at 5:15 AM

Wendy’s is taking a look at the bottom of its menu to drive
higher returns. The Dublin-based burger chain beat analyst
estimates of second-quarter revenue, and net income rose
year-over-year. However, its same-store sales, which rose 2.2
percent, lag those of competitors.

Wendy’s is taking a look at the bottom of its menu to drive higher returns.
The Dublin-based burger chain beat analyst estimates of second-quarter revenue, and
net income rose year-over-year. However, its same-store sales, which rose 2.2 percent,
lag those of competitors.

The company believes it lost opportunities to juice its sales in the quarter because of
weakness in its value menu, CEO Emil Brolick said. He told analysts during a
conference call on Wednesday that the chain’s “Right Price, Right Size” value offerings
are not good enough.

Analysts asked about the changes and how they would add to the bottom line. Michael
Gallo of CL King & Associates wanted to know how Brolick plans to make Wendy’s
value menu relevant again.

“We are clearly seeing a shift” away from individual low-priced items to meals, Brolick
said. ” The consumer today is looking for more relevant bundling.”

Presto. Wendy’s is now testing value bundles in the $4 to $6 range, and Brolick said he
hopes to see better results from the value menu by the end of the year.

John Gordon, principal of Pacific Management Consulting Group and a food-service
consultant and analyst, thinks tweaking the value menu is more window dressing than
profit driver.

Wendy’s reported better profit margins for its restaurants and increased its annual
outlook for restaurant margins as well.

The fatter margins are thanks to easing beef and pork prices but also strong limited time
offerings, which carry premium prices.

“You know why the margins are better, right?” Gordon said. “The higher-priced items.”
Gordon thinks Wendy’s needs a better story for how it will improve its same-store
sales figures. Burger King reported a 7 percent jump in U.S. same-store sales in the
second quarter.

Wendy’s booked $489.5 million in revenue in the quarter, down from $506 million a year earlier. That’s largely because the company owned 141 fewer restaurants this year. Net income rose to $40.2 million from $29 million, thanks to the proceeds from the sale of Wendy’s bakery in Zanesville.

The company also is progressing toward the sale of 560 stores, which should net $400 million to $475 million, said Todd Penegor, Wendy’s chief financial officer.

Wall Street shrugged at the company’s results. Wendy’s stock fell 18 cents, or 1.75 percent, to close at $10.11 on Wednesday.

jmalone@dispatch.com

The San Diego Union Tribune – McDonald’s goes custom

McDonald’s ‘Build Your Burger’ trial comes to San Diego

Katherine P. Harvey

Katherine P. Harvey

Customers at two San Diego-area McDonald’s restaurants can now use a tablet to build their own customized burgers with a menu of 20 new mix-and-match fixings, and receive more personal attention from employees.

The burger chain began testing the Build Your Burger concept at two Orange County stores last year in an effort to win over more young people, and last month expanded the trial to San Diego’s Midway and Santee stores.

The concept features the same burger patties found on a Quarter Pounder sandwich, but freshly grilled for each custom order. The patty is served on a buttered and toasted roll of your choice (artisan or brioche), and dressed with your choice of cheeses, guacamole, grilled mushrooms, pickled jalapenos, garlic aioli and other toppings. One of these a la carte sandwiches rings up at $5.49 plus tax. Bacon, the only “extra” that costs extra, adds 80 cents to the total.

At the recently renovated store on Midway Drive, an employee in a black-and-white uniform stands at the front of the restaurant and greets customers, educating them about the Build Your Burger option, then guides them through the ordering process. There’s one hitch: Guests who want to order anything off the standard McDonald’s menu have to step over to the counter.

When each made-to-order burger is ready, instead of sliding a plastic tray across the counter, a McDonald’s employee delivers it to the guest’s table in a metal basket. When the customer is finished eating, an employee comes by to bus the table and ask how everything was.

For nearly 60 years McDonald’s Corp. has had a reputation for producing affordable, consistent food for the masses, but the Build Your Burger experience costs, feels and tastes more like fast-casual than fast-food. That’s kind of the point, said industry analyst John Gordon, owner of Pacific Management Consulting Group.

Many of the most desirable consumer groups today demand more personalization and a higher-end flavor when it comes to what they eat.

“The problem for chains like McDonald’s is that with this generation, the Millennials in particular, the standard of expectations has risen,” Gordon said. “The standards that were OK for our parents, aren’t necessarily OK for us.”

The percentage of 19- to 21-year-olds in the U.S. who visited McDonald’s monthly has fallen by 12.9 percentage points since the beginning of 2011, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from Technomic, while the percentage of customers age 22 to 37 visiting monthly during that period has been flat.

That’s one of several reasons why overall sales have been either flat or falling for most of the year at the burger giant’s U.S. stores, as young people who grew up on Happy Meals develop fussier palates and a deeper interest in having it their way with everything from fashion to food.

It’s also why we’re seeing some fast-food restaurants begin to roll out more upscale menu items and services, and in the case of Taco Bell’s U.S. Taco Co., even upscale versions of themselves.

Customization has been a big driver in the restaurant industry for the last 10 years, said Gordon.

“Honestly, McDonald’s is behind on this,” he said.

Now the world’s largest hamburger chain has to win back a crowd that already prefers Five Guys Burgers and FriesThe Habit Burger Grill and Smashburger.

“This is very much a step up and gets them away from the mass-produced food,” Gordon said, adding that he believes the concept will appeal to everyone.

Dan Coudreaut, Executive Chef and Director of Culinary Innovation says the Build Your Burger concept was born out of a desire for McDonald’s to deliver the best burger, and to compete with a growing number of fast-casual restaurants offering fresher tastes and better customer service.

“This is a holistic view of how we build the best burger possible for McDonald’s,” Coudreaut said. “We gathered from our guests that it has to be great ingredients treated really well, and there has to be some customization component.”

While the new buns, toppings and sauces play a big role in the Build Your Burger program, the extra service is important too, Coudreaut said.

“We’re taking a broader scope than just the burger, so it’s all about how we’re cooking it, how guests are ordering it and how we’re serving it.”

The project is being piloted at McDonald’s stores on Cuyamaca Street in Santee and Midway Drive in San Diego, and Coudreaut said it will continue indefinitely. Midway franchise owner Paul Schmid declined to share how much it cost to launch the program, but said he believes it could easily become the McDonald’s of the future.

“I don’t want to think of this as a test,” Schmid said. “You’ll have to drag it out of here.”

John Williams, 65, of South Mission Beach, called the Build Your Burger system smooth and intuitive on a visit to the Midway store Thursday. It also allowed him to try new combinations.

“I don’t normally get caramelized onions or smoked bacon,” Williams said. “That’s a good thing.”

Tom Biddlecome, 51, of Point Loma, said the presentation mimicked the advertised picture, a rare occasion.

“I wasn’t expecting all of this, to be honest,” Biddlecome said. “I’ll be back for more.”

The San Diego Union Tribune – Rubio’s grilling up fresh look and brand

By Katherine P. Harvey (/staff/katherine­poythress/) 3:35 p.m. Sept. 24, 2014

Updated 11:06 a.m. Sept. 29, 2014

San Diego ­based fish taco chain Rubio’s (http://www.rubios.com/) is freshening up its brand, its menu and its stores to better embody its coastal roots, the company announced this week.

The fast­ casual restaurant chain, which began selling fish tacos at its first store on Mission Bay in 1983, is dropping “Fresh Mexican Grill” from its logo and replacing it with “Coastal Grill.”

It’s also redesigning 60 of its Southern California stores with more modern elements reminiscent of the beach.
Senior Vice President of Marketing Karin Silk said the changes are an effort to distinguish Rubio’s from other fast­casual Mexican restaurants like Chipotle (http://www.chipotle.com/en­US/default.aspx?type=default) and Jack in the Box’s Qdoba (http://www.qdoba.com/). Rubio’s is setting itself apart, she said, by putting a greater emphasis on seafood.

The company has added several grilled seafood items to the menu over the last two years, including a salmon taco, mahi burrito, shrimp taco, and an array of grilled seafoods that can be added onto the restaurant’s salads and bowls. The grilled items tend to be a little pricier than their beer ­battered counterparts, Silk said, but the farmed tilapia dishes have a more approachable price point.

“As we evolved our menu, we began to feel that the name ‘Fresh Mexican Grill’ didn’t really fit anymore,” Silk said. “We began to really separate ourselves from the other competitors out there.”

The new menu demanded a new, modernized look for Rubio’s, which has never overhauled the design for its full chain before, she said.

The company’s Carmel Mountain Ranch restaurant test marketed the new look, which includes natural wood, cobalt, green, indigo and sand colors throughout, and blue tiles showcasing the chain’s salsa bar.

The redesign is also expected to hint at the company’s involvement in seafood sustainability and beach cleanups
(http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/may/07/rubios­to­hold­third­annual­coastfest/), with wall panels depicting the restaurant’s history and artwork detailing the brand’s recipes and ingredients.

Restaurant analyst John Gordon, owner of Pacific Management Consulting Group in San Diego, said the rebrand and redesign are both good things for Rubio’s, which doesn’t have many direct competitors.

“The physical refresh is very important,” Gordon said. “Anything that has a customer­facing area just needs a new look periodically.

You’ve just got to do it because people are attracted to that and don’t want to just see the same old, same old all the time.”
Placing greater emphasis on grilled foods is smart, he added, because more consumers are opting for them as a healthieralternative to fried items.

Still, the chain needs to consider more customizable menu options, Gordon said, if it’s going to continue to compete with other fast casual concepts.

Rubio’s Senior Vice President of Real Estate Greg Semos said the response to the changes at the test store was “overwhelmingly positive,” and sales improved noticeably.

Rubio’s operates almost 200 stores in California, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and Utah. The company this year topped the list of Mexican chains in Consumer Reports’ latest survey, and came in second behind Chipotle on the publication’s burrito ranking.

Note: This story has been updated to clarify the fact that Ralph Rubio did not invent the fish taco, but began selling it in 1983.

© Copyright 2015 The San Diego Union­Tribune, LLC. An MLIM LLC Company. All rights reserved.

The Sacramento Bee – The Nosh Pit: French fry war comes to Greater Sacramento

Restaurant Finance – Could Darden Be A Buyout Candidate?

Published: 

Could the battle between Darden Restaurants and its activist shareholders end up with the big casual dining operator owned by a consortium of private equity groups?

We have no information that this will happen. But it’s definitely feasible.

Darden is a big company. Its market cap is about $6.4 billion. A buyout would cost the acquirer a premium on that. At 20 percent, that would make Darden worth $7.7 billion. At 33 percent, that would be about $8.5 billion. The total value would be even higher, given that Darden has about $2.7 billion in total debt.

Either number would make Darden, by far, the costliest restaurant buyout in history, easily besting the $4.2 billion acquisition of Burger King by 3G Capital. Even if Darden succeeds in getting rid of Red Lobster before selling, it would still be the biggest restaurant acquisition.

The restaurant consultant John Gordon, in fact, believes that Darden could be pushing hard its Red Lobster divestiture largely to make itself prettier to a potential private equity buyer. By selling or spinning off Red Lobster, Darden could get rid of a good portion of its debt while improving margins and shrinking the company size to make it an easier pill for a buyer to swallow. And the buyer wouldn’t have to worry about fixing Red Lobster.

To see why Darden could be a buyout candidate, just look at the recommendations from the activist shareholders pushing major changes at the Orlando-based company. Many of the issues that Starboard Value and Barington Capital are pushing are the same types of issues that lure private equity buyers.

For one thing, there is the real estate. Right now, a huge portion of Darden’s value is locked up in real estate–which Starboard estimates to be worth about $4 billion, meaning nearly two-thirds of Darden’s market cap is real estate based. Even without Red Lobster, the company has substantial real estate holdings that would likely be monetized once a new buyer comes in.

Another issue is the number of brands that Darden operates, eight overall. One brand, Yard House, could be spun off in an IPO–remember, that chain had been considered a candidate for the public markets before Darden scooped it up for a high multiple.

Ultimately, the rest of that brands could be broken apart in some form, too. One of the issues Darden has in separating its flagship, Olive Garden, from the rest of the company is a belief that its high-growth Specialty Restaurant Group couldn’t survive on its own without a lot of debt. Even then, however, a private equity buyer could wait until that group was more able to stand on its own.

Darden has other financial levers that would make it attractive to a buyer. Its high SG&A spending, for one thing. In addition, though Darden has started franchising its flagship brands internationally, that remains an untapped market that could well lure a buyer into paying a higher price for the company. One of the reasons 3G Capital bought Burger King was its belief that the chain could grow substantially in foreign markets.

As I said, all of this is pure speculation on my part. But there are plenty of private equity groups with the wherewithal to make a run at a company like Darden. Bain Capital, which had been involved with three of the largest restaurant buyouts in history including Domino’s, Dunkin’ Brands and the previous Burger King buyout, just raised $7.3 billion for a buyout fund. That’s nearly enough to buy Darden.

The New York Post – Dunkin’ Donuts heats up war against Starbucks

Dunkin’ Donuts CEO Nigel Travis is trying to rally his troops to mount a fresh attack after coffee rival Starbucks gained ground in the latest quarter with a low-priced assault.

Shares of Canton, Mass.-based Dunkin Brands fell to a 52-week low on Thursday after the doughnut and coffee chain blamed bad weather for disappointing US same-store sales growth of 1.8 percent in the second quarter.

Later on Thursday, Seattle-based rival Starbucks — seemingly unaffected by the unseasonably cold and rainy start to spring — beat the Street’s estimates with a 7 percent gain in US same-store sales, thanks to discounted coffee prices that took direct aim at Dunkin.

While Travis tried to put a positive spin on the results and talked about the chain’s march westward into new territories, he struck a different tone in a rare all-hands-on-deck conference call with more than 200 franchisees concentrated in the Northeast.

As part of his plan of attack, he urged store owners to push pricier options, such as steak sandwiches, to get people to spend more per visit.

“We need to drive the top line,” he told the franchisees during the call.

He also pushed dark roast coffee, which he says compares favorably with Starbucks.

“Everyone needs to get behind dark roast coffee,” Travis said. “It is critical to our war with Starbucks.”

The CEO is pushing the franchisees to boost the dollars per ticket after a rewards program he championed largely failed to perk up business.

While the DD Perks rewards program now has 1.3 million members, traffic in its stores has risen only slightly, while the average ticket price fell for the first time.

“I would say the rewards program has not been a success,” Pacific Management Consulting Group founder John Gordon told The Post.

A Dunkin’ spokeswoman defended the perks programing, saying it “will be a significant driver of growth in the future.”

Unlike Starbucks’ chain of company-owned stores, Dunkin’ relies on franchise owners to carry out its coffee war. This prompted one Queens franchisee to ask Travis during the call, “How are we going to turn this around?”

“We are obviously a franchisee system,” Travis said in response. “Starbucks can turn on a dime,” adding that its larger rival can sell certain products for little profit to move volume, while Dunkin’ cannot force its franchisees to eat a loss.

One problem for Travis is that Northeast franchisees control the $300 million-plus ad budget, and prefer not to highlight dark roast coffee in Dunkin’ ads since it is not as popular in their region. Dark roast has more appeal in the West, where Dunkin’ is trying to expand.

During the call, Travis also spoke about rolling out a new “Blender” drink program, such as the Island Oasis Blender that will be tested soon in the South.

Dunkin’ shares tumbled 4.2 percent, to $42.01, on Thursday while Starbucks rose $1.66 to close at $80.45.

The New York Post – Fortress poised to get biggest stake in bankrupt Quiznos

It’s hard to profit from selling toasted submarine sandwiches when they’re weighed down with so much debt.

The 33-year-old Quiznos sandwich chain filed for Chapter 11 reorganization on Friday, a move that will result in Wes Edens’ Fortress Investment Group owning the largest stake in the 2,100-unit chain, The Post has learned.

By filing, the Denver-based company — credited with kicking off the toasted submarine craze — is able to cut its debt by $400 million, or by two-thirds.

Big lenders, including Fortress, Howard Marks’ Oaktree Capital and Michael Dell’s MSD Capital, are hammering out a debt-restructuring deal for when they take control of the company, sources said.

Under the tentative plan, senior lenders will get 70 percent of Quiznos while junior debt holders will get the rest, according to a source with direct knowledge of the situation.

Edens will become the third large private equity or hedge fund titan to try to grow the troubled chain.

CCMP Capital, JPMorgan’s former private equity firm, invested in 2006; Marc Lasry’s Avenue Capital, in 2012. Both failed.

“This is a case of really bad due diligence,” restaurant consultant John Gordon told The Post. “The buyers had overconfidence with the franchise model. They had just an implicit belief that a franchise model is flawless.”

With the average Quiznos franchisee losing money, the new owners are considering reducing the price of goods they sell their franchisees to help them regain their financial footing, sources said.

Fortress, which holds senior and subordinated debt, stands to get 30 percent to 40 percent ownership in the chain. It also owns a minority equity position in Quiznos, but that will be wiped out in the restructuring.

Oaktree is angling for a roughly 30 percent stake as part of the debt-to-equity swap.

MSD and Caspian Capital Advisors are discussing smaller stakes, sources said.

Avenue, Quiznos’ controlling shareholder, will see its equity wiped out in bankruptcy. The hedge fund, which also holds junior debt, would see its more than 70 percent stake shrink to less than 10 percent under the proposed deal, sources said.

Lasry’s Avenue gained control of Quiznos through an earlier out-of-court debt restructuring in 2012, investing $150 million of equity.

The still-evolving plan would need to be approved by the bankruptcy judge. Creditors aim to exit bankruptcy within 100 days.

The Post first reported Feb. 24 that senior lenders were within weeks of pushing the chain into bankruptcy.

In addition to having its debt cut to $225 million, Quiznos would not have to pay interest on that money for 18 months, although interest will accumulate, a source said.

All but seven Quiznos locations are franchises, and they are not involved in, or affected by, the filing.

Independent Joe – Dunkin’s Choices Keep it a Strong Competitor for Breakfast Business

By Carolyn Assa

My morning workout is one of the few things I
do for myself each day. The other is stopping
at Dunkin’ Donuts for a healthy, low-calorie,
breakfast on the way home,” says Sherri Horlink. The
slender blonde, soccer mom from Natick, Massachusetts,
enjoys an egg-white veggie flat bread sandwich when her
busy schedule allows time for it.

Horlink is exactly the kind of customer Dunkin’ Donuts
is courting—not just in New England, but across the
brand’s growing footprint. The strategy is simple: Offer
fresh, hot coffee paired with one of a myriad of choices at
virtually any hour of the day

“Our current focus is and has been coffee. Traditionally
people come to us for that first cup of coffee. People
want coffee and breakfast together. That puts us in this
space,” says Chris Mellgren, owner of Surfside Coffee
Company, a Dunkin’ Donuts franchise group with a
network that stretches from Miami to the Keys, and
from Sarasota to Fort Meyers.

More than just a cup of coffee

Breakfast is the meal of champions, and there is plenty of
competition for those morning meal dollars. In today’s
busy world, where everyone is overextended, starting the
day off right is about more than just a getting a good cup
of coffee, it’s about getting an enjoyable breakfast at a
reasonable price.

“Obviously there’s been a progression toward a healthier
option—egg whites, low-fat turkey. We will continue to
provide that as well as other options for customers,” says
Mellgren. “The other trend we’re seeing, and Taco Bell
is all over this, is portability of product. We are looking
for more creative ways to come up with options, ways to
create food you can carry with one hand while driving
down the road—flatbreads and wraps, for example.”
Dunkin’ Donuts builds customer loyalty with its prod
-ucts, but there’s more to it than that. “Value, speed,
quality, and convenience are the top priorities at
Dunkin’ Donuts,” says Addison Ames, a former owner

of 100 Dunkin’ Donuts/Baskin Robbins combo stores in Central
Florida.

Mellgren agrees: “We are always looking to provide speed,
quality and diversity of breakfast sandwiches. We are constantly
rolling out new offerings on an almost quarterly basis.”
Consumers want a friendly face, healthy options, reasonable
prices, a clean restaurant, and fast service—ideally, with a drivethru
window. According to Ames, 70 percent of sales take place
at the window for franchises that have a drive-thru.

DDIFO Restaurant Analyst John Gordon, who is president of
Pacific Management Consulting Group, agrees that the drivethru
option gives Dunkin’ Donuts an edge especially when those
drive-thrus are open 24 hours—something conventional restaurants
do not generally offer and many Starbucks don’t offer.

“At Starbucks—one out of every three coffee transactions has some
food transactions added on. Dunkin’ Donuts has similar numbers,
they just don’t track them. Part of the economic goal and motif
going forward is to increase sales—once you have a store, rent and
overhead to cover, you need to make money,” says Gordon.

Breakfast when you want it

“Lots of consumers look for a 24-hour-a-day option. The fact
that Dunkin’ offers that gives the company a very unique place
in the market,” says Ames. “It also helps that all menu items are
available 24-hours-a-day.”

“People’s patterns are changing. The notion of very narrow
eating times has ended for most people. People are working from
home. Everything is dispersed every which way. Kids, especially,
like breakfast food. Kids tend to be up later. Their time clocks
are different. This trend to breakfast is big,” says Gordon who
emphasized that being able to get breakfast all day is a plus.
Gordon adds, that McDonald’s, long known as the industry
leader in the breakfast wars, is losing a lot of customers because
they don’t serve breakfast after 10am. Even so, breakfast still
accounts for 25-percent of all daypart sales for McDonald’s.
Breakfast is the most profitable meal of the day for any restaurant,
so the opportunity for increased revenues is huge.

“If you are interested in making money it (breakfast) is the place
to be,” says Ames, now based in Orlando, FL, and working as the
Director of Marketing and Communications for Barnie’s Coffee
Kitchen. “There’s a lot of opportunity to expand with breakfast.
Whenever we offered new or limited time products—sales went
off the charts for that item.”

“As much as we like to think of ourselves as clever, we are not the
only ones that have identified breakfast as profitable. Especially
in Miami, but everywhere there is one of our competitors within
a mile of us,” says Mellgren, who operated Dunkin’ franchises
in the Washington, D.C. area before relocating to Florida a few
years ago.

Options in product and location

Ames says that Dunkin’ Donuts does a good job of creating new
and better products that consumers readily accept and are willing
to pay more to purchase. He says that consumers vote with
their dollars, and their money says breakfast is what they want.
New York City native Eva Kant waited years for a Dunkin’ Donuts
to open in her neighborhood on the Upper West Side of Manhattan.
A therapist who routinely walks to work, Kant says she
makes a regular stop at DD in the morning. She loves the coffee
and the various breakfast options. “I was happy to learn that
Dunkin’ Donuts has a variety of breakfast choices,” she says.
With greater competition from other quick service restaurants
and mom-and-pop shops across the country, Dunkin’ Donuts
franchisees are always on the look-out for new opportunities to
entice morning customers.

“We had the breakfast sandwiches. We would make combos
with muffins, coffee, sandwiches, etc. We always tried to keep it
under $5. We sold a lot of sandwiches. I did that on my own and
built those areas,” says Kathy Anczerewicz, a former franchise
owner in Chicago. She and her husband owned several Dunkin’
stores for more than three decades before retiring earlier this
year and selling their last two restaurants.

“Going into more breakfast sandwiches is one way of reaching
consumers. Dunkin’ always watches out for competitors,” says
Anczerewicz, who found the battle for breakfast with McDonald’s
extra challenging because the Golden Arches are headquartered
in Chicago.

To beat the competitors, she says, she made sure to get involved
– and stay involved – in her community, hiring local people to
work in her shops and featuring community messages on her
bulletin board.

According to the research firm NPD Crest, a leading global information
company in Purchase, NY, U.S. consumers cut back on
restaurant visits at lunch and dinnertime last year, but increased
their visits at breakfast. It was the fourth straight year of that
trend. There was a gain of three percent to over 12.5 billion for
breakfast visits last year in the U.S. Fast food, which accounts for
about 80 percent of total revenue for morning meals, showed the
strongest increase at four percent.

After Dunkin’ Brands’ third quarter earnings report delivered a
two percent increase in comparable store sales and year-overyear
revenue growth of 3.4 percent, media reports cited pressure
from strong competition in the breakfast and coffee environment
as a chief cause of the brand’s failure to meet Wall Street’s
expectations.

Bloomberg Businessweek wrote, “The only coffee and doughnut
company that is having a solid year on Wall Street is Canadabased
Tim Hortons – and that’s mainly because Burger King has
agreed to buy it,”

Franchisees see competition for breakfast dollars wherever they
look.

“Taco Bell is doing a good job with breakfast. Of course Denny’s
has always had breakfast too,” says Anczerewicz, “Just look at
the economy… people aren’t spending money. Fast food is what
people can afford, so, everyone’s trying to grab that business.
Plus, people are on the go. They want things quick, and they
want quality. You have to give quality. I feel a lot of chains
are going to look at breakfast. It’s the best area; it’s the most
profitable.

And of course, “coffee is universal and can be had at any time
of day or night,” says Gordon. “It’s true that coffee companies
and fast food restaurants do compete in the [4:00 a.m. to noon]
daypart known as breakfast – McDonald’s, Burger King, Wendy’s,
Taco Bell, Tim Hortons, Peete’s Coffee, and Tea Leafe – but the
value of this market share extends beyond breakfast.”

Gordon says that leveraging affordable breakfast, sandwiches
and snacks in addition to beverages, helps franchisees generate
sales during traditionally quiet periods. “Breakfast enables a
stronger 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. hour which builds up the lunch
crowd—breakfast consumption has been rising, and is very well
reported. In the restaurant space it’s the only daypart that is
growing. Lunch and dinner are down. The reason is that there
has been emphasis on breakfast. Breakfast also enables a more
robust overnight presence—from about 2:00 a.m. to 3:00 a.m.
people start to desire breakfast food. Overnight food offering
becomes viable. Utilizing your asset again.” The goal, Gordon
says, is to satisfy those customers so they return over and over
again.

Chuck Fries, an east coast transplant who works as an engineer
in Chandler, AZ, has become a Dunkin’ regular now that the
brand has established itself in Arizona. Fries likes the options
on the DD Smart Menu. “My family and I moved here from the
Northeast for a healthier life-style. It’s nice to know that Dunkin’
Donuts is here too, and that healthy food options for breakfast
and other meals is a priority for them as well.”

The Hill – Franchise owners flock to DC in defense of McDonald’s

BY BEN GOAD – 

Franchise owners flock to DC in defense of McDonald’s
© Getty Images

Fast food restaurateurs, hotel operators and other franchise owners from around the country are descending upon Washington on Tuesday to register their opposition to a National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) finding they say threatens to undermine their business model.

The latest salvo in an escalating battle between labor and business, the fly-in is part of the International Franchise Association’s (IFA) strategy to overturn a preliminary NLRB decision that corporations like McDonald’s share joint employer status with their franchisees.

If upheld, the finding would force corporate managers to the table in collective bargaining discussions and expose them to claims of labor rights violations from workers at chain stores and businesses.The fight began only recently, but the business group is moving to quickly shore up crucial support within Congress.

“We’re going to make our voices heard,” IFA President Steve Caldeira said, describing the developments at the NLRB as “a threatening situation” for an otherwise healthy industry that added jobs during the economic crisis.

“It would have a chilling effect on job creation,” he said.

The fight centers on a July finding by the NLRB’s Office of General Counsel that McDonald’s USA LLC could be named as a “joint employer respondent” in scores of cases alleging workers’ rights were violated in response to protests for higher pay.

Franchisors have traditionally been insulated from such cases, but the NLRB finding supports a view held by unions that corporations like McDonald’s enjoy control over virtually every facet of its stores while bearing little responsibility for worker treatment.

“The reality is that McDonald’s requires franchisees to adhere to such regimented rules and regulations that there’s no doubt who’s really in charge,” said Micah Wissinger, an attorney representing McDonald’s workers in New York City.

New York, Chicago, Detroit and other cities have been home to a series of protests in recent years involving workers demanding wages of at least $15 an hour.

The Fast Food Forward movement has succeeded in grabbing national headlines, most recently this month, when dozens of workers were arrested for their parts in coordinated protests around the country.

The campaign asserts that anything less than $15 an hour is not a livable wage. And the push was buoyed by the NLRB’s joint employer designation, which could shift significant leverage to workers engaged in such labor disputes, if it stands.

However, the finding will be subject to review by an administrative law judge, once complaints naming McDonald’s are formally made. The losing side in those cases could then appeal to the full NLRB and, after that, federal courts.

Even if ultimately upheld, the McDonald’s joint-employer status would not automatically apply to other franchise chains, which would be judged individually going forward.

“Each company potentially coming under any form of review by NLRB has different policies and practices that would need to be evaluated in a case-by-the-case basis,” said John Gordon, a California-based restaurant analyst at Pacific Management Consulting Group.

But business groups fear that the dispute could create a damaging precedent for the industry, which has enjoyed steady growth in recent years, even as other segments of the economy faltered.

Businesses are seeking to portray the protest campaign as a clear effort orchestrated by the Service Employees International Union to organize the nation’s fast food workers and replenish the powerful labor group’s dwindling ranks.

And while workers take their case to the streets, the IFA is turning its attention to Capitol Hill.

More than 350 franchisees and franchisors are expected to participate in this week’s event in Washington, which will include remarks from Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R).

The business owners plan to flood lawmakers’ offices, pressing them to oppose the NLRB’s finding. While they have no direct role in the fight yet, the IFA believes Congress will play a critical role in its outcome, whether through oversight of the NLRB or direct legislation.

To date, industry groups critical of the NLRB’s position have found a sympathetic ear from Republicans. In the House, the Education and the Workforce Committee convened a hearing last week to rail against the decision.

Senate Republicans have also jumped to the businesses’ defense.

“The franchise relationship is an American success story that allows entrepreneurs to climb the ladder of economic success, and the NLRB is attempting to change that model by creating great uncertainty for workers and business owners about who’s in charge,” Sen. Lamar Alexander (Tenn.) said.

Alexander, the top Republican on the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) plan this week to unveil a bill they say would “turn the NLRB into more of an umpire than an advocate.”

Though details have not been released, the legislation is not expected to directly address the joint-employer issue.

Looking to expand its support, the franchise association will argue that the NLRB finding would reduce the incentive to own a franchise by designating the umbrella corporation as a formal employer.

Caldeira said franchisees operate independently, as small-business owners who “have their own skin in the game,” via personal investment.

“It would essentially take away their autonomy to run their own business,” he said of the decision.

The IFA has at its disposal a formidable, if relatively small, lobbying force.

The group spent $745,000 to lobby the federal government last year but has shown signs of ramping up its activity. It added a third outside lobbying firm, American Continental Group, to its roster this month.

Lobbyists on the account include Stephen Pinkos, a former Republican leadership aide; Manus Cooney, a former Senate Judiciary panel counsel who also advised Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) 2008 presidential run; and C. Stuart Chapman, a past chief of staff to Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.), who oversaw her work on the House Education and the Workforce Committee.

Forms indicate the American Continental Group will be taking the trade group around to offices on Capitol Hill to provide an “introduction of members to IFA.”

The group has also worked to grow its influence in Washington via the campaign circuit. The IFA’s expenditures through the association’s political action committee increased each election cycle between 2000 and 2012, when spending eclipsed the $1 million mark, according to data kept by the Center for Responsive Politics.

Through the end of July, the IFA had doled out just under $965,000, the figures show.

Caldeira said the group has increasingly looked to back members on both sides of the aisle who are supportive of its priorities. This time around, the joint-employer issue is near the top of the list.

“We’re going to ask lawmakers to become more aware of this threatening situation,” he said, later adding, “This is an election year.”

Megan R. Wilson contributed to this story.

Herb Greenberg – Getting Restaurant IPO Indignation

SAN DIEGO (RealMoney) — You could see this coming from a mile away: Noodles & Co. (NDLS – Get Report), Potbelly (PBPB – Get Report) and Papa Murphy’s  (FRSH – Get Report). All three were well-established before they went public, and all three, so far, are causing investors to grab the Tums.

Regardless of what Noodles reports today, it faces the classic retail/restaurant dilemma for an initial public offering: Quickly growing a concept that may or may not have appeal beyond a certain region to meet Wall Street’s expectations, then finding the right real estate in a market that’s often already glutted — as in the case of Potbelly — with sandwich shops.

As San Diego-based restaurant consultant John Gordon tells me, El Pollo Loco (LOCO – Get Report), from the IPO class of last month, “Historically hasn’t been able to grow north of Santa Barbara.” He continues, “This is the former Denny’s clone, under-managed for years, almost defaulted on debt in 2011. Private equity had to pump in $40 million, paying an 18% coupon. But now it’s back from the grave. They have made menu improvements and two years of (same-store sales) gains. The Street was totally blitzed with them in late-July timing (the third week is a primo IPO week), a faulty comparison to Chipotle. Traders said, ‘I want a fresh story, something to get in at ground level, it’s cheaper than CMG, geesh! But most of my non-sell-side restro-analytical friends see it as the bottom of the heap.'”

What’s at the top? In Gordon’s opinion, Zoe’s Kitchen  (ZOES – Get Report) “is a real fast casual brand (as opposed to LOCO, which isn’t), which is first in its sub-segment (Mediterranean) and is not so insanely overpriced yet such that there will be a year one-two ‘shock effect’ meltdown when earnings disappoint. Its store economics is solid.”

Reality: Just because a company goes public, doesn’t mean its concept has been validated. It means either a) the private equity or venture guys wanted out, or b) the investment bankers were persuasive, or c) the executives were tempted, or d) all of the above.

Follow @herbgreenberg

Denver Post – Noodles & Co. looking to defrost after a frigid winter

By  | The Denver Post

PUBLISHED:  | UPDATED: 

The Broomfield-based chain blamed a tough winter for sales that fell short of expectations and sent its shares plunging to the lowest price since last summer’s initial public offering.

A slew of public companies have played the cold-weather card to explain disappointing performance.

But fast-growing Noodles was hit harder than many because its restaurant mix is weighted in Northern and Eastern states that were pummeled by heavy snow and freezing temperatures. About 80 percent of the locations are in the Rocky Mountain West, upper Midwest and mid-Atlantic.

“Maybe there’s a sense of fatigue in discussing the cold weather,” said Kevin Reddy, CEO of the chain whose specialty is pasta prepared in a dozen different styles. “But it’s true. It was one of the harshest winters ever.”

Not coincidentally, Noodles is focusing some of its growth plans on warmer states such as California and Florida.

The company recently reported first-quarter revenue of $89.5 million, falling short of analysts’ expectations of $92.2 million.

More telling of the cold-weather malaise, Noodles said sales at restaurants opened for more than one year fell 1.4 percent. It marked the first time in five years that the company failed to show an increase in the important financial metric of same-store sales.

Investors were shaken. Shares of Noodles plummeted 14 percent percent April 30, the day after earnings were reported. That was the lowest level since Noodles launched its IPO last year at a price of $18 a share. The stock closed Friday at $33.25, well below its high of $48.30 reached in October.

Yet analysts are largely positive about Noodles’ future. They say that winter performance aside, the chain shows well. Sales and unit growth are on upward trajectories. The sensational rise in share price shortly after the public offering, they note, unduly raised investors’ expectations.

“Fundamentally, there is still nothing wrong with Noodles,” said restaurant analyst John Gordon of San Diego-based Pacific Management Consulting Group. “They just have to continue to grow stores and sales to equal the stock value. That takes time.”

Noodles often is compared to its Denver-based peer in fast-casual dining, Chipotle. The similarities stem from the chains’ common geographic origins and the fact that Noodles’ top two executives — Reddy and chief operating officer Keith Kinsey — are alumni of the management ranks at Chipotle.

“But Noodles is not the next Chipotle,” Gordon said. “That’s an unfair comparison.”

Chipotle, in business since 1993, operates more than 1,600 restaurants. Noodles opened its first unit in Cherry Creek in 1995 and now has 398 locations.

Chipotle’s share price has risen from $22 at the start of its 2006 IPO to $547.09 Friday.

Chipotle is strong in the younger adult demographic, while Noodles targets families with children.

The two chains also differ dramatically in executive compensation.Chipotle recently made headlines when shareholders voted to reject the company’s pay plan, which last year gave co-CEOs Steve Ells and Monty Moran $25.1 million and $24.4 million, respectively, in total compensation.

Noodles’ Reddy last year made $3.7 million in total compensation, including a $1 million bonus related to the launch of the IPO.

Reddy said Noodles defies comparison to any other fast-casual restaurant chain. The company often refers to itself as “a category of one.” No other mass-market eatery, officials say, offers pasta prepared in a variety of ways encompassing American, Indonesian, Italian, Japanese and Thai flavors. The menu also includes soups, salads and sandwiches. Customers order at the counter, then are served at tables with china and silverware.

The chain receives mixed reviews for its nutrition profile.

Nutrition Action Healthletter recently gave Noodles a “Food Porn” rating for its Barbecue Pork Mac dish, in which a regular-sized serving weighs in at 1,270 calories and 29 grams of saturated fat.

“Basically you’re looking at a big bowl of white flour, meat and cheese in most of their dishes,” said Jayne Hurley, senior nutritionist at the Center for Science in the Public Interest. “The number of healthy choices on the menu is dwarfed by the number of unhealthy choices.”

However, Hurley gives Noodles credit for giving customers a choice between smaller- and regular-sized entrees, and for prominently listing calorie counts on the menu.

“If you’re careful, you can get a decent meal,” she said.

Reddy said Noodles seeks a balance between good nutrition — with items including whole-grain pastas and vegetable add-ons — and indulging customers’ tastes.

“The strength of the brand is that we create choice,” he said. “We’re not preachy about (nutrition). We’d rather not tell people what they should be eating.”

New initiatives include providing table service in which restaurant staffers offer beverages, appetizers and an expanded menu of desserts to customers tableside. Noodles also is launching catering for business and social events.

Reddy said he expects catering to produce a material boost to revenue and earnings.

Restaurant analyst Darren Tristano of Chicago-based Technomic said Noodles is likely to overcome its first-quarter financial stumble through a continued emphasis on store growth and appeal to consumers.

“If you go out with your friends or family, somebody can get mac and cheese, and somebody else can get Italian. Customers appreciate the diversity,” Tristano said.

“The brand is very strong,” he said. “There’s nothing wrong with what they’re doing.”

The Deal Pipeline – Sandell Asset Management’s Plans for Bob Evans Farms May Include M&A

Restaurant chain’s BEF Foods could be worth $450 million in a sale,
analyst says.
BY RONALD OROL
Oct 24, 2014 4:01 PM EDT

With four nominees on the 12-person Bob Evans Farms Inc. (BOBE) board, Sandell
Asset Management Corp. expects to see significant change in the restaurant
operator’s financial performance. Absent that, look for the activist fund’s manager
Thomas Sandell to return in 2015 with another board slate, industry analysts said.

Though Sandell Asset Management fell short of getting its full eight-person slate
elected at an August meeting, the partial win resulted in the separation of the role of
CEO and chairman earlier this month.

Sandell, a 7.6% stakeholder, has demanded that New Albany, Ohio-based Bob
Evans split up its restaurant business from its packaged goods unit, BEF Foods, to
unlock shareholder value hidden in real estate on the restaurant side of the business
by engaging in a substantial sale-lease back of its 562 company-owned locations.

The dissident has also raised concerns about faltering revenue growth and “bloated
corporate overhead” as well as “inordinately high SG&A expenses.”

Analysts are at odds over whether it makes sense to sell BEF Foods, which sells
sausage, bacon and other processed meat, and macaroni and cheese through
grocery stores, as well as whether the sale-and-leaseback plan makes sense.

Bob Evans is more likely to consider selling BEF Foods than doing a sale-leaseback
deal, said Miller Tabak analyst Stephen Anderson.

The remaining management-backed directors have top board subcommittee
chairman positions and are likely to push back on a major sale-lease back deal, citing
tax and leverage-hiking consequences, new escalating rent costs and a lack of an
economic buffer for hard times, he said. He also noted that incumbent director Eileen
Mallesch, continues to chair the audit committee, and remains an obstacle to
Sandell’s efforts.

Nevertheless, Anderson said Bob Evans could receive in the neighborhood of 13 to 13.5 times
trailing Ebitda — between $425 million and $450 million — to sell BEF Foods.

Sandell suggested in September that potential buyers were looking to make an offer. In a
securities filing, the activist fund manager noted that he was contacted by a private equity firm
interested in discussing an acquisition of BEF Foods as well as “several” investment firms
interested in a transaction involving the company’s real estate.

A company spokesman declined to comment on whether it has been approached by potential
buyers but the company noted that a key responsibility of its recently formed finance committee
is to take a “fresh look at ideas from all of our stockholders.”

And while Sandell didn’t return calls, Anderson suggested that the most likely buyer for BEF
Foods would be Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. (PPC) because an acquisition of the Bob Evans unit
would allow it to diversify away from poultry and extend it into the breakfast market, where PPC
doesn’t currently compete. Anderson also suggested that compared to ConAgra Foods Inc.
(CAG) or Pinnacle Foods Inc. (PF) , Pilgrim’s Pride has a stronger balance sheet and can take
on more debt than the others.

John Gordon, founder of Pacific Management Consulting Group, agreed that Bob Evans should
spin off BEF Food — calling it “imminently spinoffable,” — and would help Bob Evans cut debt
and make shareholders happy.

He also suggested that Pilgrim’s Pride could be interested after it punted on efforts to buy
Hillshire Brands Co. (HSH) , which was eventually acquired by Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) for $8.5
billion. “From a traditional M&A point of view they would be the most interested and the one that
investment banks would most likely pitch a deal to,” said Gordon. “They had a funding
commitment to buy Hillshire, which makes this deal easily doable.”

Another rival, Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL) , would probably not be interested because a
combination with BEF Foods could face potential antitrust issues over high concentration in the
pork-products market, Anderson said.

However, Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Brian Bittner said he doesn’t see any benefits to selling
the food products business at “currently depressed earnings” levels. He added that
Oppenheimer’s analysis of a sale-lease back doesn’t imply that it would be “value accretive”
given the new rent cost for Bob Evans that would come with the real estate separation.
“We have done deep analysis on this. Don’t fool yourself,” Bittner warned.

Sandell has argued that the packaged foods division generates very little synergies with the
restaurant division while management contends that it produces brand and advertising
synergies, as well as supply chain savings and operational efficiencies.
Anderson said that even though Bob Evans does not have a great deal of long-term debt it has
borrowed substantially against its credit line and may want to evaluate a transaction to help pay
down debt.

“When this is considered as a measure of the company’s debt load, its debt-to-capital ratio is
55% as of the end of the July quarter,” Anderson said. “I think this could be an argument for a
sale-leaseback though I still believe that a sale of BEF Foods is more likely and the proceeds
from that could be used in part to strengthen the balance sheet.”

Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that a restaurant real estate separation could happen at
Bob Evans. Anderson said a compromise could be worked out where Bob Evans sells 141 of its
562 units to franchise owners in fringe markets such as the mid-Atlantic states as part of a saleleaseback
arrangement. He said these kinds of transactions are likely far less extensive than
the measures that Sandell wants the company to consider, but the deal could generate pre-tax
revenue of $255 million and suit both sides.

However, he said he believes that if there isn’t any movement in either area Sandell may be
back next year to launch another proxy battle to seat more directors, and it could happen earlier
than the restaurant chain’s annual meeting, which is expected in August. Anderson noted that
Sandell could seek to hold a special shareholder meeting in advance of the annual meeting,
something he would need the backing of 25% of investors to do, according to Bob Evan’s
bylaws.

Some observers have questioned why Sandell hasn’t pushed the company to conduct a tax-free
REIT spinoff of the real estate assets, a financial engineering tactic that a number of insurgents
in other campaigns have sought to do.

Activist investor Starboard Value LP succeeded in taking over the 12-person board of Darden
Restaurants Inc. (DRI) , in part so it could work on a spinoff of the company’s real estate into a
tax-free REIT.

Gregg Feinstein, managing director and head of M&A at investment bank Houlihan Lokey, said
that a sale-leaseback at Bob Evans may make more sense than a REIT spinoff because the
restaurant chain has a smaller pool of real estate than Darden and as a result it would be less
attractive as a standalone REIT.

Anderson agreed, noting that there are no restaurant REITs in the U.S. and that Bob Evans’ real
estate is too small an asset to work in a REIT structure, especially with an additional corporate,
general and administrative expense overhead that would have to be built at the REIT

Hartford Courant – Fast-Food Workers Demand $15 An Hour

September 04, 2014|By MARA LEE maralee@courant.com

HARTFORD — Before 13 fast-food workers from Connecticut and Rhode Island sat in the road and before the police escorted them to a prisoner van, about 150 supporters marched down Park Street in Hartford, chanting and drumming about the “Fight for 15.”

Some were carrying signs: “We’re worth more” and, in both English and Spanish: “A fight for $15 and a union.”

Kathy Mundo, who was watching from a bus stop, had never heard of the Fight for 15 movement, though this is the seventh demonstration since the push for higher wages and unionization began in New York two years ago.

Mundo, who earns less than $9 an hour at a supermarket where she has worked for two years, said that of course she supports higher wages. But could they get $15? “The way the economy looks, not really.”

Dozens of the protesters crowded into a McDonald’s just off Park Street at about 11:30 a.m. with a bullhorn, first chanting, then listening to fast-food workers who have become activists.

“I can’t tell you how many times I’ve had to work off the clock,” Jelani Burrell, 24, of Bloomfield told the crowd. He said while it only takes a few minutes to take out the trash or put something in the sink, that time adds up.

He told them that he was fired from his part-time delivery job at Papa John’s in Bloomfield when his boss found out he was going to these demonstrations, and that SEIU and the National Labor Relations Board helped him get his job back. The crowd cheered its approval.

He is paid $8.70 an hour, the minimum wage, but with tips and a portion of delivery fees, he earns $11.50 hourly on average. He has to pay for his own gas.

The Service Employees International Union has spent more than $10 million on this national push, according to The New York Times. There were at least as many SEIU members — primarily home health care aides, who earn $12.75 an hour — as there were fast-food workers at the Hartford protest.

Burrell, who works a second job at UPS and is a college student, was one of those arrested. He said they were charged with disturbing the peace and given a summons to go to court on Tuesday. Police gave the fast-food workers the chance to clear the street and avoid being arrested, but they remained.

Katelin Smith, a Dunkin’ Donuts worker in Hartford, stopped to take pictures and gawk at the protest and blocked traffic. Smith, 22, of Middletown, has worked at several Dunkin’ Donuts over the last six years but had never heard of the fast-food workers’ strikes. She was conflicted about the goals of the movement. It’s hard to keep up when it gets busy, and she thinks they deserve better pay, said Smith, a part-time college student who lives with her parents. And, she added, her co-workers who have their own apartments find it hard to pay rent.

But, she added: “Minimum wage is going up anyway. It doesn’t make sense.” She said she would never join such a protest. “I can’t be out here just screaming,” she said.

John Gordon, a restaurant analyst who works in California and advises both national chains and franchisees, said few hourly fast-food workers stay for even one year in the same place, which is a huge barrier to organizing a workforce into a union.

“I believe the unionization threat is near zero and I very strongly believe that,” he said. But he said the protests are a way to apply pressure to politicians to raise the minimum wage around the country.

Rep. Edwin Vargas, D-Hartford, also spoke to the crowd in the restaurant. “It’s corporate policy that has kept the worker down,” he said, as protesters responded: “That’s right.”

“You cannot be a giant vacuum cleaner, taking every dollar out of our community,” he said.

In an interview outside, he said, “I think most consumers would gladly pay an extra 10 or 15 cents.”

About half the fast-food workers at the protest work at Wendy’s.

Gordon said the average customer’s bill at Wendy’s is $7. A Wendy’s purchase will have to increase by 15 cents each year over the next three years for a restaurant to pay Connecticut’s scheduled $10.10 minimum wage and still preserve the typical $80,000 in annual profits per location, Gordon said.

But $15 is impractical, Gordon said. If a Wendy’s franchise paid hourly workers $15 an hour, the customer’s average bill would climb to $8, because labor costs are only a portion of a restaurant’s expenses. But in poor neighborhoods, he said, it’s not clear that customers would pay that. They might buy fewer drinks or items, or come in less often.

Heather Sirbrian, a customer who was eating at McDonald’s when the protesters arrived, said she had heard of the movement before and doesn’t support it.

“Fifteen dollars for a worker at McDonald’s is ridiculous,” said Sirbrian, who lives in East Hartford and works as a line cook at a sit-down burger restaurant. After working 20 years in restaurants, she said, “I don’t even make $15 an hour!” She makes $12.50.

The Columbus Dispatch – Analysts skeptical of Bob Evans’ bet on broasted chicken

Bob Evans Farms, long the home of pancake and sausage breakfasts, sees its salvation in dinner. The New Albany-based restaurant and prepared-foods company hasn’t seen a gain in same-store sales in five quarters and reported on Tuesday that the key metric declined 2 percent in its most recent quarter.

Bob Evans Farms, long the home of pancake and sausage breakfasts, sees its salvation in dinner.

The New Albany-based restaurant and prepared-foods company hasn’t seen a gain in same-store sales in five quarters and reported on Tuesday that the key metric declined 2 percent in its most recent quarter.

Bob Evans officials, though, are counting on a return to “high-single-digit” increases in same-store sales later in this fiscal year, and they pointed to a new dish as leading the charge: broasted chicken.

Analysts appear skeptical of the company’s outlook.

“I am still having a tough time picturing the high-single-digit same-store sales growth in the second half,” Brian Bittner, an analyst with Oppenheimer, said during an earnings call yesterday. “How do we get to the high single digits?”

Bob Evans CEO Steven Davis believes test results in Cincinnati show great promise for the marinated, pressure-fried chicken. Broasting is a term coined by Broaster Co., a Wisconsin company that sells the frying equipment.

It was so popular, Davis said, that stores in Cincinnati often sold out of the product. In the test market, broasted chicken surpassed the Rise and Shine breakfast as the best-selling menu item and generated as much as 12 percent of sales.

Broasters are being installed chain-wide, with full implementation in November.

One glitch, though, could be that even with broasted chicken, Cincinnati stores posted just a 0.4 percent increase in same-store sales in Bob Evans’ first quarter. That beat the chain’s other restaurants but was hardly spectacular.

Davis attributed the low growth to a lack of advertising around discounted pancake dishes. The discount “did not drive foot traffic; it simply reduced sales,” he said.

The idea that broasted chicken – and a focus on driving lunch and dinner sales – will turn around Bob Evans’ sales isn’t feasible, said John Gordon, principal of Pacific Management Consulting Group.

“To get a change in overall sales trend, they would have to really increase dinnertime traffic and not lose anyone at breakfast or lunch,” Gordon said. “That’s tough to do.”

He added that building the brand around broasted chicken, not pancakes and sausage dishes, won’t happen overnight. Gordon thinks Davis is grasping for life preservers as Bob Evans’ performance slump has deepened.

Bob Evans has battled activist investor Thomas Sandell over the same period. Sandell gained four seats on Bob Evans’ 12-seat board of directors at the company’s annual meeting last week. At the time, analysts wondered whether Davis’ tenure would be short-lived.

The decline in same-store sales started in the summer of 2013. The most recent results showed that sales dropped in May, June and July, and the drop accelerated each month.

Bob Evans, which operates 562 stores in 19 states, also is counting on a milder winter, much better holiday sales in its prepared-foods division and an easing of record-high sow costs. A lot has to go right, Gordon said.

Jumps in same-store sales of close to 10 percent are hard for restaurants to achieve and fleeting, Gordon said.

Same-store sales growth at Wendy’s hit 3 percent last year after it introduced the mega-hit Pretzel Bacon Cheeseburger.

“You can count them on one hand,” Gordon said. “They are very rare. The bump doesn’t last long, either.”

jmalone@dispatch.com

Ad Week – What’s Slaying the All-American Burger?

After 5 years of steady growth, chicken comes home to roost

Could the hamburger, the long-reigning, all-American favorite, finally be toast?

Beef burgers made their name as a workingman’s meal during the Great Depression—before evolving into the symbol of American corporatism and cultural hegemony that they have become. The Economist, singing the praises of the burger, once called it “a symbol of the reassuring predictability, the pre-packaged straightforwardness, the sheer lack of pretension of American life.”

But move over, burger—chicken is having a moment.

For the first time in a century, Americans are gobbling up more of the humble bird—much of it in the form of fried chicken drumsticks, crispy chicken sandwiches and chicken nuggets—than double cheeseburgers, sliders and T-bones. Chicken consumption, after growing steadily over the last five years, last year finally paced ahead of beef, according to the USDA. This, as a four-year drought in Texas, which produces the bulk of our beef, has forced prices skyward and triggered a beef shortage. On the flip side, there is such tremendous demand for chicken that this is shaping up to be the most profitable year ever for chicken producers, as Bloomberg reports, with a surge in wholesale prices boosting profits for giants like Arkansas-based Tyson Foods.

It’s little wonder, then, that fast-food chains like Burger King are jumping into poultry in a big way, even as a couple of heavy hitters already well-known for their bird—Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen and Chick-fil-A—are enjoying a growth spurt. “As we see a systemic decline in beef consumption, relatively inexpensive and easily available chicken is turning into the universal protein,” notes John Gordon, analyst and principal at Pacific Management Consulting Group.

Just how hot is chicken? Last year, U.S. sales at limited-service chicken chains shot up 4 percent, while comparable burger chains saw less than half that growth, with a 1.5 percent bump, per Technomic. Particularly revealing, Chick-fil-A became the No. 1 fast-food outlet in the U.S. in per store sales as of 2012, tallying $3.1 million per location, versus $2.6 million for McDonald’s and $1.2 million for Burger King. Even Domino’s—in the process of phasing “pizza” out of its name—has caught chicken fever, launching its Specialty Chicken line in April with a national TV campaign from lead creative agency Crispin Porter + Bogusky. The new menu offering consists of a dozen chunks of breaded chicken breast covered with sauce, cheese and assorted pizza toppings. “This is a one-of-a-kind product that reinvents the way chicken is served in our industry,” boasts Russell Weiner, Domino’s CMO. “Our pizza expertise inspires items like this outside of the traditional pizza category.”

TV spots promoting Domino’s concoction focus on how the company isn’t afraid to take risks and, in keeping with its recent marketing messaging, how it sometimes fails. “We are proud to be known as a pizza company, but Specialty Chicken shows we are not afraid to step out of our comfort zone,” says Weiner. “We encourage our team members to keep trying to get better. Failure sometimes shows itself on the road to success.”

Burger King, stinging from a 1 percent dip in U.S. sales in 2013, recently debuted its Chicken Big King sandwich and dusted off its legendary “Subservient Chicken” campaign, created by Crispin and The Barbarian Group a decade ago. It relaunched the website subservientchicken.com, which made advertising history by putting an actor in a chicken suit who seemingly performed stunts on command. (In reality, numerous possible reactions were filmed.) This time around, the site sports a video about the fabled “chicken man,” claiming he’s gone MIA. As part of the campaign, the fugitive chicken shows up in unexpected places, prompting Twitter sightings.

The South Rises
Leading this charge are two chains based in the Southeast, a region where fried chicken is taken as seriously as football, iced tea and God.

Last year, Chick-fil-A—which lately has earned headlines not so much for its food as for its outspoken, conservative Christian CEO Dan Cathy—strutted ahead of Kentucky Fried Chicken in total sales, even though Chick-fil-A has only 1,800 U.S. outlets to KFC’s 4,500. And Chick-fil-A is in rapid-expansion mode, with outlets slated for the West, Midwest and Northeast, including New York City (where it currently boasts but one location, inside a dorm at New York University in Greenwich Village). The chain plans to be a presence in 41 states by this fall.

While its fried chicken sandwich with pickles on a soft, buttery bun made it a legend, last month Chick-fil-A got serious about becoming the healthy choice among chicken joints, replacing its char-grilled sandwiches with three grilled chicken items. “This is the largest investment we’ve made in a product launch,” says CMO Steve Robinson. “We’ve been working for years to get this grilled product right, even inventing our own grill. It’s all part of our commitment to be the better-for-you fast food.”

Next up for Chick-fil-A: persuading more consumers to choose chicken for breakfast, with items such as chicken and waffles on the front burner.

One thing that will remain a constant at Chick-fil-A is its distinctive marketing from Dallas-based The Richards Group. The centerpiece of the advertising is an anthropomorphic cow wearing a sandwich board that urges consumers to “Eat Mor Chikin.” Campaigns encompass TV and out-of-home as well as a broad line of merchandise, including a cow-of-the-month calendar. (In newer markets, the chain has been known to run the original ads that kicked off the cow-themed campaign 19 years ago.)

Popeyes is right on Chick-fil-A’s heels. With 1,721 locations in 47 states, it has run national TV spots since 2008. To solidify its brand position, the urban fried chicken-and-biscuits brand underwent a major makeover five years ago and became Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, adding a handful of Cajun-themed dishes. The restaurants are currently being remodeled so they are centered around a giant spice rack that represent all the spices that go into its New Orleans-style menu offerings. The redo was the brainchild of CEO Cheryl Bachelder, who joined Popeyes in 2007 after serving as president of KFC.

“Americans often associate Louisiana with good food, according to our research, so we decided to talk about our Louisiana heritage with gusto and specificity,” explains CMO Dick Lynch, a Bachelder hire. Advertising is anchored by a fictional character called Annie, a middle-age, African-American woman from Louisiana who likes to cook. Aside from promoting the chain’s latest special offer, Annie explains the nuances of Cajun cooking to audiences largely far removed from the Big Easy.

The company also runs a cooking program in New Orleans for its most successful franchise owners. The Louisiana Heritage Culinary Institute introduces the franchisees to Cajun and Creole dishes such as rice fritters and New Orleans barbecue shrimp. “We will always be Louisiana—we lean into it,” as Lynch puts it. “As we expand in both big cities and suburbs, we want to win people over to our culture.”

Whither KFC?
Despite its heady new status as the meat of choice, no one ever said selling chicken to the masses was easy.

Photo: Michael Clinard

In the U.S., KFC outlets have struggled in recent years, as the company focused more on its breathtaking growth in China. Average U.S. sales per store in 2012 were an anemic $957,000—less than one-third that of Chick-fil-A and less than half that of Popeyes. Last year, sales at KFC tanked 6.7 percent, even as its rivals were cooking. “There is no fast fix for KFC,” David C. Novak, CEO of parent Yum Brands, told industry analysts last year. (Since then, food-safety issues put a damper on the chain’s expansion in China, and Taco Bell CEO Greg Creed was tapped to run Yum Brands, replacing Novak.)

In a stab at turning things around, the world’s most famous purveyor of fried chicken is getting creative—and in some cases, downright wacky. In October, it introduced the KFC Go Cup, fried chicken and fries served in a cup that fits in most car cup holders. More than 20 million were sold in the first three months, according to spokesman Rick Maynard. Other products are so over the top that they became instant catnip for social media—among them, the Double Down, a sandwich constructed of slabs of fried chicken substituting for bread, and a drumstick-festooned corsage just in time for prom season, which spawned a promotional video designed to build even more buzz. Meanwhile, KFC is attempting to reinforce its identity as “the brand that’s a family meal solution,” as Maynard puts it. To that end, the chain is kicking in a free chocolate chip cake with the purchase of every 10-piece chicken meal.

The biggest restaurant brand of them all, McDonald’s—which in the early ’80s made Chicken McNuggets a staple of the American fast-food diet—has had its own challenges when it comes to chicken. It had egg on its face this past February after the rollout of its Mighty Wings spicy fried chicken item, whose sales were so limp that the company got stuck with 10 million pounds of unsold wings, languishing in the freezer and speeding toward their expiration date. McDonald’s was forced to mark them down by 40 percent.

Naturally, a marketer as savvy as McDonald’s doesn’t launch a new product without exhaustive research. As it happens, McDonald’s test marketing in the Chicago and Atlanta markets indicated that the chain had a major hit on its hands—overlooking the fact that wings happen to be disproportionately popular in those cities. In other towns, as it turns out, customers balked at the dollar-a-wing pricing, found the spices intimidating and were annoyed by the bones. The media had a field day over the rare McDonald’s flop. (What was lost in the reportage was that, while 10 million pounds may seem like a lot of bird, McDonald’s initially bought 50 million pounds of wings, selling 80 percent of the inventory at the premium price.)

Making People Fatter
Another key factor driving chicken’s rise is the perception that it is a healthier choice than beef—forget that much of that chicken comes battered and deep fried. “Fried chicken has more calories and fat than beef, and the shift from burgers to fried chicken won’t help our obesity problems,” says Jennifer Harris, director of marketing initiatives at Yale University’s Rudd Center for Food Policy.

In fact, the growing popularity of chicken could make us even fatter. One need only compare a Burger King cheeseburger with a Popeyes fried chicken breast to find that the chicken boasts some 40 percent more calories and greater than twice the saturated fat, cholesterol and sodium of the burger.

Chick-fil-A’s new grilled menu offerings aside, the chicken chains could do a better job of making healthier choices available, as Harris sees it. “If these places really wanted to sell healthy chicken, grilled chicken would be priced better, any chicken sandwich would come with grilled chicken automatically unless people ask for fried, and the grilled items would be advertised more extensively than the fried variety. Plus, counter displays and menu designs would favor grilled over fried items,” she says.

That said, our collective fingers will likely just get greasier.

Going back to the hamburger, it harkens back to a time when America and American tastes were more homogeneous, as analyst Gordon sees it. “Fast-food chains could serve [the same] mass-market items, such as burgers, to everyone,” he explains.

Chicken heralds not just a culinary but also a societal shift. “Our country is not so ‘mass’ anymore. We are broken into many social strata and different locales,” says the analyst, who declares that the rise of chicken—whether grilled or deep fried, in a bucket or on a bun—is no mere fad. “It reflects a fundamental change in our culture.”